Bombers Delight
[SIZE=+1]The Pro Shop[/SIZE]
The PGA tour leaves Florida and heads to Humble, TX for the Shell Houston Open.
This tournament provides one last tune up for the Masters next week and the players who are not already in the field at the Masters will be trying to win and earn a last-second spot. It is interesting to see the different trains of thought when it comes to preparing for the majors. Some players played last week to practice and some are using this week to get ready.
The Shell Houston Open is played at the Redstone GC Tournament Course (par-72) and measures 7,457 yards. The course has some characteristics of Augusta National GC and tournament officials know that similarities in the course layouts increase their opportunity for a better field. To name a couple similarities, the edges of the greens have been shaved and these tightly mowed aprons will allow balls that miss the green to roll into the water. There is water on 10 of the 18 holes and the aqua does come into play, just as it does at the Masters.
One of the differences between this week and next week is that several of the par-four and par-fives flatten out or start a descent at the 285 to 300 yard mark in the fairways at the Tournament Course. This sets up a scenario where the shorter hitters are hitting into the up-slope of the fairways and not receiving any rollout, while the bombers carry these up-slopes and land it on the flat ground or even a down-slope. Catching up with Brian Gay while I was in Orlando, he said that the players who usually hit it 30 yards past him were hitting 70 yards passed him last year on some holes and he called this course a "Bombers Delight".
Looking at past trends over the last four years (tournament was played at a different course prior to '06); I found that driving distance was a key attribute. I have taken Brian's advice and looked for players who can move it off the tee. I did not look at driving distance (somewhat skewed stat since it is based on only two holes each week), but I looked at percentage of drives over 300 yards. There is nothing fishy about this stat and it truly points out the bombers. Paul Casey won this event in '09 and was T9 in driving distance for the week and J.B. Holmes was second in driving distance and he got beat in a playoff.
In addition, I paid attention to players who make the most of their birdie opportunities and have a strong putting average per GIR. There are going to be bogeys this week, but the player who can negate these bogeys with more birdies will jump into contention. Fred Couples hit his irons well and averaged over 304 yards off the tee, but was unable to make enough putts down the stretch to get into the playoff with Casey and Holmes.
I will combine these two attributes, strong scrambling stats, and solid course history to find the winner this week.
[SIZE=+1]Back to Defend[/SIZE]
Paul Casey: I tried every way possible to keep from predicting back-to-back wins at this event for Casey, but I was pressing too hard. Casey has all the shots to win again and I cannot shy away from his red-hot start in '10. Here are his last three finishes in stroke play events T6, T4, and T11. Casey hits it long enough, putts it well enough and has proven he can win. I am riding the Englishman to win again this week…Win
[SIZE=+1]Promotions[/SIZE]
Padraig Harrington: The Irishman is starting to find his form and his week off will certainly freshen him up after playing three-straight weeks. Harrington has played this event four-straight years and his worst finish was a T32. Do not get all crazy with that, because his best finish was a T24. I look at the consistent finishes as an opportunity for growth and I love his scrambling abilities. He could capitalize on the birdie opportunities a little more for my liking, but he has what it takes to contend…Top 5
Lee Westwood: I am going to jump on Westwood this week and I have steered clear of him to start the year. I like that he has played here two out of the last four years and he can hit it far enough off the tee to take advantage of the layout explained above. I do worry about his putting at times and that skill-set kept him from seriously contending last year. I am looking for Westwood to hit irons with precision as he did last year and jump into the mix on Sunday...Top 5
Geoff Ogilvy: I tried to stay away from Ogilvy, but I just could not. I cannot stop looking at his finishes at this tournament the last two years (T6 and T2). We all know he has the length off the tee and he can roll the stone nicely. The question I have is with his scrambling around the greens. His scrambling stats have been on a negative decline for three-straight years. I suspect he recognizes this weakness and continues to work on this area. I am not sure I will be hot on him next week, but I like his ability to overcome this deficiency this week…Top 5
Ernie Els: I do not like that he is playing this week and I am concerned we might not get his A-game after his win at Bay Hill. Will he use this week to work on shots that will be needed next week at Augusta? I do not know that answer, but I do know he finished T14 last year at this event and has all of the attributes to win this week too. If you chose to use Fred Couples in this spot, I could not blame you and he is wearing out the Senior Tour right now…Top 10
Martin Kaymer: Kaymer looked great at the WGC-CA Championship three weeks ago and showed the world that the number-nine ranking in the OWGR is no fluke. This young gun can hit it a long way when needed and really putts well. I almost went with Lucas Glover in this spot, but his inconsistency moved the needle to Kaymer…Top 15
Anthony Kim: Kim is not my favorite golfer by any means, but I cannot overlook his record at this event (T26, MC, T5). These numbers do not jump off the page, but his last three starts on the PGA Tour (T22, T2, and T24) show that he is close to breaking through. We have seen '10 as a year of the resurgence and Kim could easily add his name to the list of comeback kids …Top 15
[SIZE=+1]Demotions[/SIZE]
Phil Mickelson: Mickelson has won an event the week before a major, but that has not happened since '06. When I Demote him, I understand you might insert him your lineup, but it is the highest form of risk and reward. He missed the cut badly at this event in '09 and was a T23 in '08. He has the needed tools to win, but he might have three drivers in his bag to determine which one he likes for Augusta. I see him using this week to work on the parts of his game that need attention and preparing for Augusta next week…21+
Johnson Wagner: Do not let his win in '08 and his T9 in '07 sway you to insert him in your lineup. There are too many elite players to fill your lineup this week and even though he has made four out his last five cuts, his best finish during that stretch was a T42…46+
Woody Austin: Austin's game is still lost and I do not see him turning it around on a course where length is a factor. He is struggling with his putter and he is reaching by playing this week (course does not fit his style of play)…MC+
Matt Jones: I thought the Aussie would rival the other Q School/ Nationwide Tour graduates at the top of the reshuffle list, but he has yet to take off. He has missed three of four cuts and the Arizona State Sun Devil should get it going again later in the year…MC+
Greg Owen: Owen has not turned the corner and seems to be going the wrong direction. Can you believe the famous three-putt at Bay Hill has been four years? He has struggled with his game for the most part since that day and I hope he can get back on track…MC+
[SIZE=+1]Sleepers[/SIZE]
D.J. Trahan: I have been speaking highly of the Clemson product all year and he is living up to the hype. Trahan did not play here the last two years, but he did finish T8 three years ago. This person can really hit a golf ball his irons and is scoring with ease. Watch out if the flat-stick gets hot…Top 15
Kevin Streelman: Two-straight top ten finishes for the Duke Blue Devil and he is riding a hot streak like his Dukies who made it into the Final Four. Streelman can go deep when required, but he must find a way to get it in the hole on missed greens. His T14 at this event in '08 proves this layout fits his game nicely…Top 20
[SIZE=+1]The Locker Room[/SIZE]
There are all kinds of games to play for the Masters and I look forward to the many questions the next two weeks. In addition, if you need any advice on how to create your own league for the Masters, let me know. I have been in several different formats for the Majors throughout the years and I can share my experiences. If you are looking for money leagues, let me know I will forward you information to a couple of legitimate and well-run leagues designed for the Masters.
Look for "The Fantasy Scorecard" after the tournament for a Fantasy Recap of the Transitions Championship.
You can follow me on Twitter at my Twitter page or email me at jmacfantasygolf@aim.com with any questions.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]Ned Said, "…[/SIZE]
PGATour.com/YAHOO!
Group A
Ernie Els…. Three wins in a row is a bit much to ask, but I will ride the hot hand.
Anthony Kim… Phil Mickelson tends to experiment for the Masters here, so I will use Kim, who has had some success at Redstone.
SUPER SUBS
Phil Mickelson, Luke Donald, Vijay Singh (withdrew from last two events with bad back, check our news for his status.), Bubba Watson
Group B
Geoff Ogilvy… He has already won in '10 and finished T2 in '08 and T6 last year at Houston.
Fred Couples… Winner of the last three events on the Champions Tour and has two-straight top-four finishes at Houston. He is a good one-and-done pick this week.
Lee Westwood… Tempted to use Hunter Mahan instead, but it is hard to ignore the world's fourth-ranked player. Westwood finished T11 last year at Redstone.
Padraig Harrington… He was in contention at both Doral and Tampa until the final round.
SUPER SUBS
Hunter Mahan, Kevin Streelman, Rory McIlroy, Rod Pampling, Lucas Glover, Adam Scott
Group C
Paul Casey… He is the defending champion and he is playing great golf right now.
Charl Schwartzel … Last week's T-52 was the first mediocre finish in '10 and I am looking for a rebound.
SUPER SUBS
Matt Kuchar, Martin Kaymer, Johnson Wagner, Brandt Snedeker, Justin Rose, Nick O'Hern
[SIZE=+1]The Pro Shop[/SIZE]
The PGA tour leaves Florida and heads to Humble, TX for the Shell Houston Open.
This tournament provides one last tune up for the Masters next week and the players who are not already in the field at the Masters will be trying to win and earn a last-second spot. It is interesting to see the different trains of thought when it comes to preparing for the majors. Some players played last week to practice and some are using this week to get ready.
The Shell Houston Open is played at the Redstone GC Tournament Course (par-72) and measures 7,457 yards. The course has some characteristics of Augusta National GC and tournament officials know that similarities in the course layouts increase their opportunity for a better field. To name a couple similarities, the edges of the greens have been shaved and these tightly mowed aprons will allow balls that miss the green to roll into the water. There is water on 10 of the 18 holes and the aqua does come into play, just as it does at the Masters.
One of the differences between this week and next week is that several of the par-four and par-fives flatten out or start a descent at the 285 to 300 yard mark in the fairways at the Tournament Course. This sets up a scenario where the shorter hitters are hitting into the up-slope of the fairways and not receiving any rollout, while the bombers carry these up-slopes and land it on the flat ground or even a down-slope. Catching up with Brian Gay while I was in Orlando, he said that the players who usually hit it 30 yards past him were hitting 70 yards passed him last year on some holes and he called this course a "Bombers Delight".
Looking at past trends over the last four years (tournament was played at a different course prior to '06); I found that driving distance was a key attribute. I have taken Brian's advice and looked for players who can move it off the tee. I did not look at driving distance (somewhat skewed stat since it is based on only two holes each week), but I looked at percentage of drives over 300 yards. There is nothing fishy about this stat and it truly points out the bombers. Paul Casey won this event in '09 and was T9 in driving distance for the week and J.B. Holmes was second in driving distance and he got beat in a playoff.
In addition, I paid attention to players who make the most of their birdie opportunities and have a strong putting average per GIR. There are going to be bogeys this week, but the player who can negate these bogeys with more birdies will jump into contention. Fred Couples hit his irons well and averaged over 304 yards off the tee, but was unable to make enough putts down the stretch to get into the playoff with Casey and Holmes.
I will combine these two attributes, strong scrambling stats, and solid course history to find the winner this week.
[SIZE=+1]Back to Defend[/SIZE]
Paul Casey: I tried every way possible to keep from predicting back-to-back wins at this event for Casey, but I was pressing too hard. Casey has all the shots to win again and I cannot shy away from his red-hot start in '10. Here are his last three finishes in stroke play events T6, T4, and T11. Casey hits it long enough, putts it well enough and has proven he can win. I am riding the Englishman to win again this week…Win
[SIZE=+1]Promotions[/SIZE]
Padraig Harrington: The Irishman is starting to find his form and his week off will certainly freshen him up after playing three-straight weeks. Harrington has played this event four-straight years and his worst finish was a T32. Do not get all crazy with that, because his best finish was a T24. I look at the consistent finishes as an opportunity for growth and I love his scrambling abilities. He could capitalize on the birdie opportunities a little more for my liking, but he has what it takes to contend…Top 5
Lee Westwood: I am going to jump on Westwood this week and I have steered clear of him to start the year. I like that he has played here two out of the last four years and he can hit it far enough off the tee to take advantage of the layout explained above. I do worry about his putting at times and that skill-set kept him from seriously contending last year. I am looking for Westwood to hit irons with precision as he did last year and jump into the mix on Sunday...Top 5
Geoff Ogilvy: I tried to stay away from Ogilvy, but I just could not. I cannot stop looking at his finishes at this tournament the last two years (T6 and T2). We all know he has the length off the tee and he can roll the stone nicely. The question I have is with his scrambling around the greens. His scrambling stats have been on a negative decline for three-straight years. I suspect he recognizes this weakness and continues to work on this area. I am not sure I will be hot on him next week, but I like his ability to overcome this deficiency this week…Top 5
Ernie Els: I do not like that he is playing this week and I am concerned we might not get his A-game after his win at Bay Hill. Will he use this week to work on shots that will be needed next week at Augusta? I do not know that answer, but I do know he finished T14 last year at this event and has all of the attributes to win this week too. If you chose to use Fred Couples in this spot, I could not blame you and he is wearing out the Senior Tour right now…Top 10
Martin Kaymer: Kaymer looked great at the WGC-CA Championship three weeks ago and showed the world that the number-nine ranking in the OWGR is no fluke. This young gun can hit it a long way when needed and really putts well. I almost went with Lucas Glover in this spot, but his inconsistency moved the needle to Kaymer…Top 15
Anthony Kim: Kim is not my favorite golfer by any means, but I cannot overlook his record at this event (T26, MC, T5). These numbers do not jump off the page, but his last three starts on the PGA Tour (T22, T2, and T24) show that he is close to breaking through. We have seen '10 as a year of the resurgence and Kim could easily add his name to the list of comeback kids …Top 15
[SIZE=+1]Demotions[/SIZE]
Phil Mickelson: Mickelson has won an event the week before a major, but that has not happened since '06. When I Demote him, I understand you might insert him your lineup, but it is the highest form of risk and reward. He missed the cut badly at this event in '09 and was a T23 in '08. He has the needed tools to win, but he might have three drivers in his bag to determine which one he likes for Augusta. I see him using this week to work on the parts of his game that need attention and preparing for Augusta next week…21+
Johnson Wagner: Do not let his win in '08 and his T9 in '07 sway you to insert him in your lineup. There are too many elite players to fill your lineup this week and even though he has made four out his last five cuts, his best finish during that stretch was a T42…46+
Woody Austin: Austin's game is still lost and I do not see him turning it around on a course where length is a factor. He is struggling with his putter and he is reaching by playing this week (course does not fit his style of play)…MC+
Matt Jones: I thought the Aussie would rival the other Q School/ Nationwide Tour graduates at the top of the reshuffle list, but he has yet to take off. He has missed three of four cuts and the Arizona State Sun Devil should get it going again later in the year…MC+
Greg Owen: Owen has not turned the corner and seems to be going the wrong direction. Can you believe the famous three-putt at Bay Hill has been four years? He has struggled with his game for the most part since that day and I hope he can get back on track…MC+
[SIZE=+1]Sleepers[/SIZE]
D.J. Trahan: I have been speaking highly of the Clemson product all year and he is living up to the hype. Trahan did not play here the last two years, but he did finish T8 three years ago. This person can really hit a golf ball his irons and is scoring with ease. Watch out if the flat-stick gets hot…Top 15
Kevin Streelman: Two-straight top ten finishes for the Duke Blue Devil and he is riding a hot streak like his Dukies who made it into the Final Four. Streelman can go deep when required, but he must find a way to get it in the hole on missed greens. His T14 at this event in '08 proves this layout fits his game nicely…Top 20
[SIZE=+1]The Locker Room[/SIZE]
There are all kinds of games to play for the Masters and I look forward to the many questions the next two weeks. In addition, if you need any advice on how to create your own league for the Masters, let me know. I have been in several different formats for the Majors throughout the years and I can share my experiences. If you are looking for money leagues, let me know I will forward you information to a couple of legitimate and well-run leagues designed for the Masters.
Look for "The Fantasy Scorecard" after the tournament for a Fantasy Recap of the Transitions Championship.
You can follow me on Twitter at my Twitter page or email me at jmacfantasygolf@aim.com with any questions.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]Ned Said, "…[/SIZE]
PGATour.com/YAHOO!
Group A
Ernie Els…. Three wins in a row is a bit much to ask, but I will ride the hot hand.
Anthony Kim… Phil Mickelson tends to experiment for the Masters here, so I will use Kim, who has had some success at Redstone.
SUPER SUBS
Phil Mickelson, Luke Donald, Vijay Singh (withdrew from last two events with bad back, check our news for his status.), Bubba Watson
Group B
Geoff Ogilvy… He has already won in '10 and finished T2 in '08 and T6 last year at Houston.
Fred Couples… Winner of the last three events on the Champions Tour and has two-straight top-four finishes at Houston. He is a good one-and-done pick this week.
Lee Westwood… Tempted to use Hunter Mahan instead, but it is hard to ignore the world's fourth-ranked player. Westwood finished T11 last year at Redstone.
Padraig Harrington… He was in contention at both Doral and Tampa until the final round.
SUPER SUBS
Hunter Mahan, Kevin Streelman, Rory McIlroy, Rod Pampling, Lucas Glover, Adam Scott
Group C
Paul Casey… He is the defending champion and he is playing great golf right now.
Charl Schwartzel … Last week's T-52 was the first mediocre finish in '10 and I am looking for a rebound.
SUPER SUBS
Matt Kuchar, Martin Kaymer, Johnson Wagner, Brandt Snedeker, Justin Rose, Nick O'Hern
